Pictured Above: Co-Principal Investigators Dr. Keri Stephens and Dr. Andrew Juan meet with Priscilla Vargas, Mayor of Premont, and Todd Wright, City Manager of Orange Grove as well other IDRT team members and City of Premont staff.

Rice University, UT Austin and IDRT (TAMU) Receive $1 Million NSF Grant to Advance Flood Resilience in Rural Texas

A team led by Principal Investigator Avantika Gori from Rice University, alongside co-Principal Investigators Keri Stephens from The University of Texas at Austin, James Doss-Gollin from Rice University, and Andrew Juan from the Institute for Disaster Resilient Texas (IDRT) at Texas A&M University, has been awarded a $1 million grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF). The three-year research project, set to begin in Spring 2025, aims to develop transformative approaches for improving flood resilience in rural Texas communities.

Addressing Gaps in Flood Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

The motivation for this study arises from critical gaps in existing flood hazard assessment and mitigation strategies. Many rural communities face flood risks that are not adequately represented in current hazard risk products, which often prioritize expected dollar damages and favor densely populated urban regions with high market value properties. Additionally, a disconnect between local community priorities and state or federal flood management policies often undermines effective flood mitigation.

To bridge these gaps, the research team will develop a performance-based, system dynamics framework designed to:

• Propagate global and regional hydroclimate variability to local-scale hazard dynamics.
• Evaluate engineered and social system performance under hazard and decision-making uncertainty.
• Enable communities to co-develop flood mitigation pathways that reflect their priorities and goals.

The project will test and refine this framework in two rural Texas communities—Fort Hancock (Hudspeth County) and Premont (Jim Wells County)—selected for their critical need for flood mitigation and representation of diverse climates and landscapes in Texas.

Building on the Digital Risk Infrastructure Program (DRIP)

Fort Hancock and Premont are familiar collaborators for the research team. Co-PIs Keri Stephens and Andrew Juan have worked closely with these communities over the past two years through the Digital Risk Infrastructure Program (DRIP). This new project will leverage and expand on the insights and relationships cultivated through DRIP, allowing researchers to deepen their understanding of local flood challenges and co-develop targeted solutions.

A Community-Centric Approach to Flood Mitigation

The study’s cornerstone is its commitment to a bottom-up, community-centric methodology. Through focus groups and regular roundtable discussions, the researchers will engage local stakeholders throughout all phases of the study, ensuring that community feedback shapes the framework and its implementation.

Key areas of focus include:

• Characterizing Multi-Scale Hydroclimate Variability: The team will investigate how regional and global climate factors contribute to localized flood risks, addressing gaps in traditional models that overlook spatiotemporal storm dynamics and antecedent conditions.
• Improving Flood Hazard Modeling: By integrating enhanced hydroclimate variability insights with detailed representations of local landscapes, the researchers aim to generate high-fidelity flood hazard estimates.
• Defining Community-Centric Impact Metrics: Improved hazard models will support the quantification of metrics that matter most to communities, providing a robust foundation for evaluating potential flood mitigation solutions.

Advancing Equitable Flood Management

This research initiative has the potential to establish a replicable model for equitable flood management across Texas. By prioritizing local needs and fostering collaborative decision-making, the study seeks to empower rural communities with the tools and knowledge to build long-term resilience against flood risks.

The research team expresses their gratitude to the NSF for supporting this critical endeavor and looks forward to contributing to the advancement of flood resilience in Texas and beyond.